混凝土坝运行初期安全监控指标拟定方法研究

针对混凝土坝在运行初期安全监测数据有限、常规大坝安全监控指标拟定方法误差较大的问题,提出基于自助法(Bootstrap)及核密度估计(KDE)理论的大坝安全监控指标拟定方法。通过再抽样构造安全监测数据的自助样本,对扩充后的样本采用核密度估计方法确定监测数据的概率密度函数,在此基础上拟定混凝土坝运行初期安全监控指标。结合仿真算例与某混凝土坝的实测数据,并与置信区间法结果对比分析,结果显示新方法误判率低,表明该方法所拟定的安全监控指标可以作为混凝土坝运行初期识别险情的标准,具有有效性和可行性。

Determination Method of Safety Monitoring Index of Concrete Dams During Initial Operation Stage

A combined method to determine safety monitoring index for concrete dams based on Bootstrap method and kernel density estimation (KDE ) method was proposed to solve the problem that common methods occur errors when mon-itoring data are limited during the initial operation stage of concrete dams .Through re-sampling to structure the safety monitoring data of the bootstrap samples ,the extended samples were then used to estimate the probability density function using kernel density estimation (KDE) method .Thus ,the dam safety monitoring index can be determined .Based on the simulation example and the monitoring data of a concrete dam ,the proposed method with low misjudgment rate is effective and practicable compared with the traditional method ,which can be recognized as a standard to identify dangers in fu-ture .