滑坡概率与安全系数应用比较分析

应用滑坡概率法和安全系数法分析边坡稳定性，并比较2种方法应用于边坡稳定性分析的优劣性。选取重度、黏聚力、内摩擦角、边坡角、边坡高度、孔隙压力比6个因素作为滑坡因子，结合36个边坡实例，应用逻辑回归模型和确定性系数，采用SPSS软件回归求解各边坡实例滑坡概率。结合各边坡实例安全系数，对边坡实例进行安全系数稳定性等级划分和滑坡概率稳定性等级划分，分析比较应用2种方法所得边坡稳定性等级的差异性。结果表明：滑坡概率法与安全系数法分析所得边坡稳定性等级大体相同，说明2种方法都有较好的适用性和准确性；安全系数法研究较为成熟，偏向于定量评价；滑坡概率法属于定性评价，但研究方法存在不足。

Comparative Analysis based on Landslide Probability and Safety Coefficient

Landslide probability method and safety coefficient method are used to analyze slope stability，and applications of the two methods to stability analysis are contrasted.Selecting six factors of heavy，cohesion，internal friction angle，slope angle，slope height，pore pressure ratio as landslide factors，with 36 slopes as cases，the logistic regression model and deterministic coefficient are adopted to solve the probability of landslide slopes with SPSS software.Combining with the slope safety factor，the stability safety factor and probability of landslide stability of slope examples are classified.Then，after analysis and comparison，the difference for slope stability level between the landslide probability method and the safety coefficient method is obtained.The results show that slope stability level obtained by the two methods is approximately the same，indicating that both of the methods have good applicability and accuracy.Safety coefficient method is relatively mature and trending towards quantitative evaluation.Landslide probability belongs to the qualitative evaluation，but its research method is insufficient.