西南地区水资源承载能力评价方法与应用

为全面客观评价区域水资源承载状况，支撑当地经济社会发展，梳理了水资源承载能力评价研究的现状，分析了概念内涵和评价指标体系，指出现行红线指标主要从地区社会经济发展角度出发，难以契合当地水资源特性和水利发展趋势的不足。从区域特征出发，着眼于评价指标的选取，提出基于水资源禀赋条件、开发利用程度和工程供水能力等水资源承载潜力因素的评价指标和评价方法。基于水桶理论，以云南省丽江市为研究对象，分别以考虑水量、水质两方面因素的红线指标与提出的潜力指标两套评价体系评估丽江市的水资源承载能力，全面考虑各要素的评价结果，验证评价指标和方法的合理性与可行性。评价结果显示：水资源红线指标在行政区域内的划分主要考虑区域社会经济发展的需求，红线指标向古城区的倾斜致使经济发展较弱的其他区域用水指标分配较少，更不利于其长远发展；用水指标在水资源分区上划分的缺失不利于水资源综合管理。考虑了水资源禀赋条件和供水工程潜力指标的评价结果更符合丽江市的现状，即丽江市水资源条件较好，但水利工程配套不足，难以有效调配区域水资源，存在工程性缺水，此为中国西南高原地区的普遍性问题。结合资源承载状况和超载成因，提出丽江市水资源调控措施建议。

Assessment Method of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Its Application to Southwest China

In order to comprehensively and objectively assess water resources carrying status and to provide a theoretical support for regional socio-economic development, this study reviewed existing researches on carrying capacity of water resources, analyzed the conceptual meaning and assessment indicator system. It is indicated that red-line indexes are allocated based on the regional economic development statement, which cannot reflect water resources characteristics and the deficiency in the development of water conservancy development in that place. From the perspective of regional characteristics, this paper focused on the choice of evaluation indexes, and an assessment method was proposed based on water resources carrying potential factors such as water resources endowment, degree of development and utilization and water supply capacity of projects. Based on Cannikin Law, the evaluation system with potential indexes was proposed in this study. Taking Lijiang city in Yunnan province as example, two evaluation systems, the present one and the assessment indicator system using quantity red line and quality red line, were used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Lijiang city to test all the factors and to verify the rationality and feasibility of assessment method proposed. The results revealed that the demand of regional social economic development is the main factor considered in red-line indexes allocation. While the old town district is assigned to a relatively high value in Lijiang city because it is the most developed area, the other districts can only get enough water to meet their need and further constrained their development. It is a problem for water resources management that the water use indexes only allocated in administrative regions but not in water resources regions. The results of potential indexes considering water resource endowment condition and water supply project can better reflect the real condition. In fact, Lijiang water resources condition is not bad, but it lacks of water conservancy projects and has the difficulty in water resources allocation, which causes engineering water shortage, a common problem in southwest China. Measures and suggestions for managing water resources were proposed based on the analysis of overloading causes.