基于 FTA-BN模型的城市燃气管道失效风险分析

为了找出导致城市燃气管道失效事故的原因，以城市燃气管道失效事故为研究对象，采用故障树方法和贝叶斯网络模型对其进行分析。通过实例分析，找出了导致某市城市燃气管道失效事故概率较大的因素分别为：阴极保护失效、外腐蚀、内腐蚀、外力影响、施工缺陷等。结果表明，基于FT A BN模型的城市燃气管道失效风险分析方法注重基事件的多态性和事件间逻辑关系合理性，能推算出更准确的基事件概率分布，同时可以找出导致事故发生的最有可能途径，为城市燃气管道失效事故预防、风险控制、安全管理提供较为合理性建议。

The Risk Analysis of City Gas Pipeline Failure Based on FTA-BN Model

In order to find out the reasons why accidents occur to the city gas pipeline ,we adopt the Fault tree and the Bayesian network model to analyze those failure cases selected for the study in this paper . The main factors are identified by analyzing the specific example . The factors include cathodic protection failure ,external corrosion ,internal corrosion ,external influences and construction defects ,etc .Interrelated analyses prove that City Gas Pipeline Failure Risk Analysis Methods based on FTA-BN models ,which focus on the polymorphism and the rationality of logical relationship between the base events , can calculate more accurately the probability distribution of the base event .It can also find out the most likely way that causes the accidents . Finally this method will provide reasonable recommendations for the failure prevention , risk control and security management of city gas pipelines .