铀矿开采项目经济评价方法研究

铀资源是我国的能源和战略物资,在国民经济建设中起着重要作用。铀矿开采项目具有很强的探索性和巨大的投资风险,为了减少投资风险和决策失误,必须对铀矿开采项目进行经济性评价。本文分析了铀矿开采项目的传统经济评价方法和实物期权法,传统经济评价方法介绍了净现值法、蒙特卡洛法、决策树法等,实物期权法有B-S定价模型和二叉树定价模型。通过对比研究指出,实物期权法在评价铀矿开采项目时的合理性———考虑了不确定性所带来的投资机会柔性管理的期权价值,突破了传统经济评价方法的内在局限。

RESEARCH OF EVALUATION METHOD OF ECONOMICS OF URANIUM MINING PROJECTS

As energy sources and strategic materials,uranium resource plays an important role in the construction of national economy in our country.Since uranium mining projects are of great investment risk,appraisement on economics of uranium mining projects must be carried out in advance so as to avoid investment risk and decision fault.In this paper,the traditional methods including NPV,Monte Carlo simulation analysis,Decision Tree and so on and the real options method including Black-Scholes and Binomial methods were discussed.Comparing the two evaluation methods indicates that the real options method is of the rationality for evaluation of uranium mining projects. The method breaks through the inherent limitations of the traditional methods because of its taking the options value of flexible management resulted from indeterminacy into consideration.