基于学习曲线的中国风力发电成本发展趋势分析

介绍了世界风力发电产业的发展,以及中国风力发电装机容量和发电成本的发展,运用学习曲线模型分析中国风力发电成本的发展趋势。比较分析了在采用恒定学习率和分阶段不同学习率情况下风力发电成本的趋势图。最后认为,预测风力发电在2020年可以与煤电成本相竞争。

Study on the Cost Trends of Wind Power in China Based on the Learning Curve

The cost trends of wind power in China was analyzed by using learning curve model,and compared the trends of wind power cost under the invariable and different learning rate by stages scenarios.The results of the model showed that,the learning rate of wind power cost in China changed between 5% and 14% over the past 15 years.And the learning rate below 14% was too low to accelerate the wind power development.The learning rate of wind power cost was predicted between about 14% and 20%,and the lowest wind power cost would be between about 0.5 and 1 cents/(kW h).In the end,the paper pointed out the wind power cost would compete with fossil fuel cost in 2020.