| 利用时间序列模型进行隧道管片沉降数据预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈浩,梁鑫鑫,高俊强. 利用时间序列模型进行隧道管片沉降数据预报研究[J]. 市政技术, 2014, 0(1): 87-89,92 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈浩 梁鑫鑫 高俊强 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京工业大学测绘学院,江苏南京210009 |
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| 摘 要： | 对隧道管片沉降数据序列进行平稳化处理,采用时间序列模型中的自回归(AR)模型建立隧道管片沉降数据预测模型。结合工程实例的多期数据进行沉降预报,并与实测值比较,其结果充分说明:自回归模型在隧道管片沉降预报中具有建模快捷、计算简便、预报短期数据准确性高的特点。
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| 关 键 词： | 隧道 隧道管片 自回归模型 数据预报 |
Analysis and Prediction of Time Series for Tunnel Segment |
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| Chen Hao,Liang Xinxin,Gao Junqiang. Analysis and Prediction of Time Series for Tunnel Segment[J]. Municipal Engineering Technology, 2014, 0(1): 87-89,92 |
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| Authors: | Chen Hao Liang Xinxin Gao Junqiang |
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| Affiliation: | (Nanjing University of Technology Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Nanjing 210009, China) |
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| Abstract: | The settlement data prediction model of tunnel segments were build by using a autoregressive （AR） model of a time series model after the settlement data were smooth processed. Combined with engineering example, the multi period settlement data were predicted and the results of compared with the measured data shows that the autoregressive model has the characteristics of easy for modeling, computation and high accuracy of short term data in prediction of the settlement data of tunnel segments. |
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| Keywords: | tunnel tunnel segment autoregressive model data prediction |
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