基于GM-Markov模型的线缆温度预警系统设计

针对电力线缆分布情况复杂、缺乏全面有效预警手段等问题，提出基于灰色马尔科夫(GM-Markov)模型的线缆温度预警系统。首先分析温度预警系统设计总体结构以及数据通信方式，通过采用LoRa和GPRS相结合的方式，保证数据采集的可靠性；其次，通过灰色马尔科夫模型预测线缆温度，将预测结果用线缆温度预警模型进行故障判断，提高预警系统准确性；最后，通过实验验证线缆温度预警的可行性，并构建线缆温度分级预警平台，实现将各种故障信息及时推送给企业管理人员，达到实时预警的目的。

Design of cable temperature pre-warning system based on GM-Markov model

Aiming at the problems of complex distribution and the lack of comprehensive and effective pre-warning methods for power cables, a cable temperature pre-warning system based on the Gray Markov model is proposed. Firstly, the overall structure of the temperature pre-warning system and the data communication method are analyzed. The communication method combining Long Range(LoRa) and General Packet Radio Service(GPRS) is utilized to ensure the reliability of data acquisition. Secondly, the gray Markov model is adopted to predict the cable temperature. The prediction result is collected for fault identification in a cable temperature pre-warning model to improve the accuracy of the pre-warning system. Finally, the feasibility of the cable temperature pre-warning is verified by experiments and an early warning platform is built for cable temperature classification. The timely notification of various faults to enterprise management personnel is realized by this means.