基于博弈论-云模型的隧道围岩稳定性分析模型研究

为科学合理评估隧道围岩稳定性，考虑了隧道围岩安全具有随机和模糊性特点，引入云理论建立综合评价模型。首先，在分析和参考文献基础上，选取了6个影响因素，构建了隧道围岩稳定性综合评价指标体系。其次，基于三标度理论改进层次分析法确定指标主观权重，引入变异系数改进CRITIC法确定指标客观权重，采用博弈论确定指标组合权重；根据稳定性分级标准确定云的数字特征并生成了指标云图，分别计算各评估对象不同等级下的单指标隶属度和综合确定度，并基于最大隶属度原则确定等级。最后将模型应用到隧道围岩安全性评价中，并与可拓理论和属性识别评价模型对比，研究结果表明所建立的评价模型评估结果准确可靠、切合实际，对隧道施工具有一定的指导意义，为隧道围岩稳定性评估提供了一条可量化的新思路。

Study on the Stability Analysis Model of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Based on the Combined Weighting Cloud Model of Game Theory

In order to evaluate the stability of tunnel surrounding rock scientifically and reasonably, the cloud model theory is introduced to establish the evaluation system based on the cloud model. First of all, by analyzing the influencing factors of the stability of the surrounding rock of the tunnel, a comprehensive stability evaluation index system is established. Secondly, the subjective and objective weights of the indexes are determined by the improved AHP and the improved critic, the combined weights of the indexes are determined by the game theory, the digital characteristics of the cloud are determined according to the stability grading standard, the index cloud chart is generated, and the different grades of the evaluation objects are calculated. Based on the principle of maximum membership degree, the stability grade of surrounding rock is determined. Finally, the game theory combined weighting cloud model comprehensive evaluation model is applied to the tunnel stability evaluation, and compared with the extension theory and improved entropy-attribute recognition evaluation model, the research results show that the evaluation results of the established evaluation model are accurate and reliable, practical, which has a certain guiding significance for tunnel construction, and provides a new quantifiable thinking for the tunnel surrounding rock stability evaluation.