基于WBS-RBS与AHP的混凝土—模板支撑工程风险研究

为管理者对工程风险认知与控制提供有价值的参考，对混凝土—模板支撑工程展开风险分析。采用 WBS-RBS 法进行风险辨识，辨识出工作中可能存在的风险因素，并与 AHP 法相结合确定风险权重指数，再根据风险度理论评定风险因素重要程度。结果表明 基本工作包中模板搭设安装和混凝土浇筑总风险度较大，需要重点关注，加强管理制定应急预案。施工作业中拆模时间过短、人为过失、未按浇筑顺序施工等 3 种风险因素较为重要，应着重加强防范。采用有效的风险分析方法有助于管理人员得知关键风险因素，并针对性提出应对措施减小安全事故的发生。

A Study of Risk in Concrete-formwork Supporting ProjectsBased on WBS-RBS and AHP

Risk analysis is carried out for formwork supporting projects to provide objective reference for managers to understandand control corresponding risks. The WBS-RBS method is used to identify risk factors that may emerge during the constructionwork. The weight index of each risk is determined based on AHP method. Then，the importance of risk factors is evaluated accordingto the risk degree theory. The results show that the total risks related to formwork erection and concrete pouring in the basic workpackage is relatively high，which should draw more attention. The management strategies should be strengthened to formulateemergency plans. Three risk factors including short demolition time，human error，and incorrect casting sequence during theconstruction work are more important than others. Focuses should be placed on strengthening prevention measures. Effective riskanalysis method can help managers to identify the key risk factors and put forward corresponding measures to reduce the occurrenceof safety accidents.