EPC联合体合作关系演化博弈分析

EPC 联合体合作关系质量对项目目标能否顺利实现有着至关重要的影响。基于演化博弈理论，研究 EPC 联合体内部设计单位和施工单位之间合作关系，通过双方收益和成本得出双方合作关系支付矩阵，构建并求解演化博弈理论的复制动态方程及演化稳定策略，并应用 Matlab 软件对影响 EPC 联合体合作关系的因素进行仿真。结果表明，设计单位和施工单位合作关系长期演化结果可能是均采取“合作”策略，也可能是均采取“不合作”策略；群体采取“合作”策略的比例与额外收益分配及其分配系数、收益实现系数及“不合作”策略损失及其风险系数成正相关，与合作成本和损失分配系数成负相关。针对双方合作困境给出了改善 EPC 联合体内部各参与方合作关系质量的建议。

Evolutionary-Game-Based Analysis on the CooperationRelationship of EPC Consortium

The quality of EPC consortium’s cooperation relationship has a crucial impact on the delivery of the project. Based onevolutionary game theory，this paper studies the cooperative relationship between the EPC consortium’s design companies and theconstruction companies，and obtains the matrix of the cooperative relationship between the two sides, through the income and cost ofthe two parties. The dynamic equation and evolutionary stability strategy of the evolutionary game theory are constructed andcalculated. Then MATLAB software is used to simulate the factors affecting the cooperation relationship of EPC consortium. Theresults show that the long-term evolution of the cooperative relationship between the design company and the construction companymay result in adopting "cooperative" strategy，or the "non-cooperation" strategy. The proportion of the “cooperative” strategy ispositively correlated with the additional income distribution coefficient，the income realization coefficient and the “non-cooperative”strategy loss and its risk coefficient，and negatively correlated with the cooperation cost and the loss distribution coefficient. In viewof the difficulties in cooperation between the two sides, suggestions are given to improve the quality of cooperation among theparties within the EPC consortium.