区域减污降碳协同控制研究——以重庆为例

在我国面对实现碳达峰碳中和与环境根本好转双目标的背景下,重庆市作为西部大开发的重要战略支点,有责任有义务率先实现减污降碳,助力国家生态文明建设。CO2和大气污染物的排放过程复杂,涉及要素众多,因而有必要明确影响两者排放的关键因素,为重庆市实现减污降碳协同控制提供科学参考。本文以对数均值除法指数模型（LMDI）为基础构建出扩展的LMDI-CO2模型和LMDI-AP模型,并以2011-2020年重庆市CO2排放和工业SO2排放为对象进行实证分析,定量评估各因素对重庆市CO2和工业SO2排放变化的影响效果。同时,根据重庆市经济社会、能源环境历史发展情况挖掘各因素的影响机制,归纳协同减排的关键因子,探究出重庆市减污降碳协同控制机制。结果显示,2011-2020年,经济发展效应是推动重庆市CO2排放增加的首要因素,贡献率达245.59%;能源强度效应对CO2减排的贡献最大,贡献率为-210.51%;此外,产业结构优化也为CO2减排做出贡献。工业经济发展是推动重庆工业SO2排放的主导因素,贡献率为64.47%;其他因素均为SO2减排做出贡献,其中能源强度和结构效应贡献率分别为-42.65%和-6.31%。可见,随着经济的发展、人口规模的扩大和生活水平的提高,重庆市CO2和污染物减排的压力将会增大,“高碳化”能源结构制约着两者减排,提高能源效率和优化产业结构对实现“双减”起着关键作用。因此,降低能源强度、升级产业结构、优化能源结构是未来重庆市实现减污降碳协同控制的重要途径。

Research on Synergistic Control of Regional CO2 and Air Pollutant Emissions Reduction in China: A study of Chongqing

In the background of China''s dual goals of achieving carbon neutrality and fundamental environmental improvement, Chongqing, as an important strategic pivot point in development of western China, has the responsibility and obligation to take the lead in reducing pollution and carbon and help build a national ecological civilization. The emission processes of CO2 and air pollutants are complex and involved many elements, thus it is necessary to clarify the key factors influencing the emission of both, which can provide scientific reference for the realization of synergistic control of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Chongqing. The extended LMDI-CO2 model and LMDI-AP model based on the log-mean division index (LMDI) model were constructed and the CO2 emissions and industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing from 2011 to 2020 were used as objects for empirical analysis. And then the effects of factors on the changes of CO2 and industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing were evaluated quantitatively. Meanwhile, the influence mechanisms of the factors were unearthed according to the historical development of Chongqing''s economy, society and energy environment, and the key factors of synergistic emission reduction are summarized to explore the synergistic control mechanism of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Chongqing. The results showed that from 2011 to 2020, the economic development effect was the primary factor driving the increase of CO2 emissions in Chongqing, with a contribution rate of 245.59%. The energy intensity effect contributed the most to CO2 emission reduction, with a contribution rate of -210.51%. In addition, the optimization of industrial structure also contributed to CO2 emission reduction. It can be seen that with the development of economy, the expansion of population and the improvement of living standard, the pressure of CO2 and pollutant emission reduction in Chongqing will increase, and the "high carbonization" energy structure restricted both emission reduction. Improving energy efficiency and optimizing industrial structure played a key role in achieving "double reduction". Therefore, energy intensity, industrial structure and energy structure were the three key factors affecting synergistic emission reduction. And reducing energy intensity, upgrading industrial structure and optimizing energy structure will be important ways to achieve synergistic control of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Chongqing in the future.