Control of a manufacturing system with random product yield and downward substitutability

We consider a manufacturing system where the quality of the end product is uncertain and is graded into one of several quality levels after production. We assume stochastic demand for each quality level, stochastic production times, and random quality yields. We also assume downward substitutability (i.e., customers who require a given product will be satisfied by a higher quality product at the same price). The firm produces to stock and has the option to refuse satisfying customers even when it has items in stock. We formulate this problem as a Markov Decision Process in the context of a simple M/M/1 make-to-stock queue with multiple customer classes to gain insight into the following questions: (i) how does the firm decide when to produce more units (i.e., what is the optimal production policy?) and (ii) how does the firm decide when to accept/reject orders and when to satisfy customers demanding lower quality products using higher quality products? In the case of two product classes, we completely characterize the structure of the optimal production and acceptance/substitution policies. However, the structure of the optimal policy is complicated and we therefore develop a simple heuristic policy for any number of classes which performs very well. We finally extend our heuristic to the system where production occurs in batches of size of larger than one, the system where there is a setup cost for initiating production, and the case where processing time distribution is Erlang.