考虑热老化的油浸式变压器比例风险模型

根据油浸式变压器中不可修复故障和可修复故障的不同机理,搭建适用于表征变压器故障率的比例风险模型;模型中基准故障率函数采用温升老化模型,并以劣化分级健康状态作为连接函数协变量,采用变形后的极大似然估计法进行参数拟合,减少了对数据量的依赖。该模型能综合考虑热老化和设备健康状态的影响,可以得出较为准确的检测间隔期,有助于电力部门合理安排检修计划,具有较好的应用前景。

A Proportional Hazard Model for oil-immersed transformer concerning thermal aging

Based on different mechanisms of repairable and unrepairable faults for oil-immersed transformer, The Proportional Hazard Model （PHM） which is applicable to characterize the fail- ure rate of the transformer was proposed in this paper. This model adopted temperature-based aging model as the baseline hazard function, and utilized the deterioration classifiable health sta- tus as the covariant of the link function. The deformed maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） was used to estimate the model＇s parameters to reduce the dependence on data amount. This mod- el, which comprehensive considered the thermal aging process and the health statue of the equip- ment, can comparative exactly infer detection interval in order to help electricity sector arrange maintenance plan reasonably and has a good application prospect.