随机需求下基于心理偏差的批发价格契约与协调

基于行为经济学中的社会比较理论，提出了正负心理偏差概念，建立了正负心理偏差情形下的供应链效应模型。分析了两类情形下的零售商最优订购策略以及正向心理偏差指数、零售商外生势力参数、负向心理偏差指数对两类情形下最优订购策略的影响。讨论了批发价契约使得供应链协调的条件。理论与算例分析表明，当零售商存在正向心理偏差时，零售商效应随正向心理偏差指数的增大呈现出U型变化特征，在特定条件下，批发价契约可以使得供应链得到协调；当零售商存在负向心理偏差时，订购量随负向心理偏差指数的增大而减少，随外生势力参数的增大而减少，无论负向心理偏差指数、制造商外生势力参数取何值，供应链均不能得到协调。探讨了决策过程中非理性因素对订购策略的影响，所得结论可为订购实践提供指导，丰富了行为运作研究。

A Supply Chain Coordination Based on Wholesale Price Contract under Psychological Deviation and Stochastic Demand

Based on the social comparative theory in behavioral economics, the concept of positive and negative psychological deviation is put forward, and a supply chain effect model is established in the case of positive and negative psychological deviation. The optimal ordering strategy for two types of retailers is discussed, and the influence of positive psychological deviation index, retailer’s exogenous force parameter and negative psychological deviation index on the optimal ordering strategy under the two types of circumstances is analyzed. The conditions for supply chain coordination are discussed in the context of wholesale price contracts. The theory and example analysis show that when the retailer has positive psychological deviation, the retailer effect changes to be a U type with the increase of the positive psychological deviation index. Under certain conditions, the wholesale price contract can make the supply chain coordinate. When the retailer has negative psychological deviation, the order quantity decreases with the increase of the negative psychological deviation index, and decreases with the increase of the external influence parameters. Whether with the negative psychological deviation index or with the manufacturer’s external power parameters, the supply chain cannot be coordinated. The influence of irrational factors on the ordering strategy in the decision-making process is discussed. The conclusions can provide guidance for ordering practice and enrich the research of behavior operation.