一种基于配电变压器失压信息倒推开关故障的方法

为了提高运行监控系统(operation control system,OCS)主站系统根据配电变压器失压信息倒推开关故障的准确性,提出一种量化评估倒推结果真实性的方法,对影响倒推结果的随机误信号和漏收信号两大因素造成误判、漏判的概率进行研究。探讨利用泊松分布公式计算开关出现故障的误判率的算法,以及利用组合概率公式计算开关出现故障的漏判率的算法,拟定倒推规则,并提出了动态优化概率目标限值、动态计算系统单位时间随机误信号个数和针对单个开关动态计算其接收准确率的具体方法。该方法具备自动适应不同OCS主站数据质量环境的能力,其推断结果的准确性会随其投入应用时间的推移而不断提升。

A Method for Deducing Switch Failure Based on Voltage Loss of Distribution Transformer

In order to improve the accuracy of switch failures deduced from power failure signal of distribution transformers in the operation control system(OCS),this paper proposes a method to evaluate quantitatively the facticity of switch failures,and studies misjudgement rate and missed judgement rate caused by random false signal and leakage signal which affect the result of deduction.It discusses the algorithm for calculating the misjudgment rate by Poisson distributor formula,and the algorithm for missed judgement rate by combined probability formula.It also makes the reduction rule and proposes an concreted method for dynamically optimizing the limited values of probability objectives,calculating the number of random false signals per unit time and calculating the accuracy of signal receiving rate.This method has the ability to adapt different data quality of OCS main stations and the accuracy of its deducing result will improve as the time goes on after it is put into use.