Large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network |
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| Authors: | Eunchang Lee Yongtae Park Jong Gye Shin |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Graduate Program in Technology and Management, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea;3. Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea;1. Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde Business School, William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow, G4 0GE, Scotland, UK;2. Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde Business School, William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow, G4 0GE, Scotland, UK;3. Department of Business Administration, University of Verona, Via Cantarane 24, Verona, Italy;1. School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), 2 George Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia;2. Research Institute of Complex Engineering and Management, School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, China;3. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, N1-01a-29, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798, Singapore;1. Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia;2. Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Australia;3. Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a scheme for large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network and applies it to the Korean shipbuilding industry. Twenty-six different risks were deduced from expert interviews and a literature review. A survey analysis was conducted on 252 experts from 11 major Korean shipbuilding companies in April 2007. The overall major risks were design change, design manpower, and raw material supply as internal risks, and exchange rate as external risk in both large-scale and medium-sized shipbuilding companies. Differences of project performance risks between large-scale and medium-sized shipbuilding companies were identified. Exceeding time schedule and specification discontent were more important to large-scale shipbuilding companies, while exceeding budget and exceeding time schedule were more important to medium-sized shipbuilding companies. The change of project performance risks was measured by risk reduction activities of quality management, and strikes at headquarters and subcontractors, in both large-scale and medium-sized shipbuilding companies. The research results should be valuable in enabling industrial participants to manage their large engineering project risks and in extending our understanding of Korean shipbuilding risks. |
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