中国家禽产品出口遭遇疫情风险的博弈对策研究

文章在阐述中国家禽产品出口贸易现状的基础上,采用博弈模型分析了动物疫病爆发时不同认知风险下采取贸易禁令的程度,讨论各种情况对于家禽产品出口贸易的影响,得出为降低疫病风险,需要对毗邻国家边境进行监控、建立边境缓冲区或将疫病的爆发区域化,增强生产协议、检验检疫的可靠性,借助流行病学中的生物和环境科学进行防控等结论。最后针对我国的具体情况,提出建立完备的预警机制、推进无疫区认可建设等建议。

Epidemic Management Based on Game Theory Analysis of Chinese Poultry Products Export

This essay included a review of present situation of Chinese poultry products export,and then discussed a simple game theory model focusing trade bans in the event of disease outbreaks with perceived risk.Specific model outcomes are that effective border monitoring of adjacent countries,border buffer zones,or regionalizing the outbreak,high confidence in production protocols and testing,and depending on the underlying nature of the biological and environmental processes driving the epidemiological system are essential for the reducing of disease risk.General recommendations are that we should take strategies such as built early-warning mechanism,animal disease free zone and so on to improve the Chinese poultry products export.