基于RS和GIS的土地利用变化碳排放现状及预测分析

根据2000年和2010年2期拉萨地区的遥感数据,在erdas平台上将该区域分为耕地、林地、草地、水域、建设用地和未利用地6类土地,利用ArcGIS的空间分析技术,得出这2期的土地利用现状分布和土地利用转移矩阵,并利用马尔科夫模型对2020年、2030年、2040年土地利用变化进行预测。以此为基础,计算出该地区标准年中每1 a的碳排放量,及预测每10 a碳排放量。结果显示:生态用地结构改变、林地面积增加是碳吸收的主要原因;过度放牧、畜牧业消费需求的增加、旅游业的开发是土地利用变化碳排放的主要原因。最后提出建议:注重保护生态环境、限制过度放牧、低碳旅游, 可以有效抑制生态用地的减少和控制碳排放总量。

Current Situation and Prediction Analysis of Land Use Changes in Carbon Emissions Based on RS and GIS

The land use in Lhasa is divided into six types inclusive of farmland, woodland, grassland, water area, building land and unused land according to the remote sensing data in 2000 and 2010 on Erdas platform. Then the distribution of land use and land use transition matrix in the two periods are obtained using ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques, and the land use changes of the years 2020, 2030 and 2040 are predicted by using Markov model. On this basis, the carbon emissions per year of these years are calculated and the emissions every 10 years in the region are predicted. The final results show that the change of ecological land structure and the increase in ecological land (forest) area are the main causes of carbon sequestration. Overgrazing, increasing consumer demand for animal husbandry and development of tourism are the main causes of carbon emissions during land use change. Finally, some suggestions to control carbon emission and limit the decrease of ecological land are put forward: protecting ecological environment, restricting overgrazing, and promoting low-carbon tourism.