调水背景下丹江口水库优化调度与效益分析

针对南水北调中线一期工程建成调水这一新常态下丹江口水库调度问题,从丹江口水库蓄水、供水、发电等不同运行任务出发,通过设定弃水最小化、发电量最大化调度目标函数和不同供水调度情景,建立了丹江口水库优化调度模型,构建满足丹江口水库调度运行方式的求解空间,采用1956—2015年丹江口天然入库径流系列,运用较成熟的动态规划优化算法对丹江口优化调度进行模拟,研究水源地枢纽丹江口水库不同调度目标函数和运行方式对下游区域水文情势和供需水平衡的影响,试图为提出可权衡汉江流域多方用水需求的丹江口调度运行方式提供基础支撑。结果表明:考虑南水北调中线一期工程引水后,采用丹江口优化调度方案的下泄水量>272亿m³,能够满足下游基础供水需求。

Benefit Analysis and Optimal Scheduling of Danjiangkou Reservoir in the Presence of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project

As the first-stage project of the south-to-north water transfer project has been built, the scheduling of Danjiangkou reservoir has become an important issue. The aim of this research is to provide basic support for the scheduling which could make a trade-off among multiple users in the Hanjiang river basin. In the light of storage, water supply, and power generation tasks, a scheduling model for Danjiangkou Reservoir was built through setting objective functions (minimum abandoned water flow and maximum power generation) and water supply dispatching scenarios (in the presence and in the absence of the south-to-north water transfer project). The solution space which meets the dispatching operation mode of Danjiangkou reservoir was constructed. Dynamic programming algorithm and natural incoming runoff series of Danjiangkou between 1956 and 2015 were used for the simulation. The influences of objective function and operation mode on the water regime and water balance in the downstream were analyzed. Results show that in the presence of the first stage of middle route south-to-north water transfer project, the discharge of Danjiangkou reservoir’s optimization scheduling is more than 27.2 billion m³, which could meet the water demands in the lower reach of Hanjiang River.