基于改进Logistic模型阶段划分理论的饱和负荷预测

用电需求的饱和负荷预测可以确定一个地区未来电网发展与用电需求的最终规模，并以其远期电网规划目标指导近期电网建设，可以有效减少电网改造成本，做到有步骤有条理地进行该地区区域电网的改造与建设，对区域规划、区域经济与电网之间的协调发展具有重要意义。该文提出了基于改进Logistic模型的负荷发展历程阶段划分理论，并给出了饱和负荷的新内涵，修正与完善了判定电力饱和负荷的量化指标体系。最后采用改进Logistic模型对案例进行了研究与分析，完成了案例用电饱和规模以及饱和时间点的预测与分析工作，并验证了其可行性。

Saturated Load Forecasting Based on Stages Division Theory of Improved Logistic Model

The saturated load forecasting of power demand can determine the ultimate size of a regions future grid development and power demand, and the forward power grid planning goals can be used to guide recent grid construction, which can effectively reduce the cost of the reconstruction of power grid, contribute to the work of gradual and methodical renovation and construction of the regional power grid, and has great significance for the regional planning, and the coordinated development between regional economy and power grid. This paper presented the stages division theory of load development based on improved Logistic model, proposed a new definition and meaning for saturated load, and amended and improved the quantified index system for judging power saturated load. Finally, the improved Logistic model was applied to study and analyze the case, the prediction and analysis work of the power saturation scale and saturation time point in the case was completed, and its feasibility was validated.