基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究

为揭示丹河流域径流年内、年际变化特征,根据山路平水文站1955-2000年的逐月平均流量资料,采用基尼系数法和集中度(期)等方法对丹河径流量的年内分配进行研究;并运用Kendall秩次相关检验法和R/S分析法对全年、汛期和非汛期的径流量变化趋势进行分析,同时使用Morlet小波对各径流序列的变化主周期进行识别。结果表明:1955-2000年,丹河流域径流量年内分配十分均匀,各时期的年内分配过程主要为"复式峰"型,最大峰值出现在8月份;流域全年、汛期和非汛期3个径流量序列均呈显著递减趋势,且未来递减过程都具有一定的反持续性;丹河全年和汛期的径流序列具有相近的丰-枯交替变化周期,包含4、10和15 a左右的变化主周期;而非汛期径流序列存在15和28 a左右的丰-枯交替变化主周期。

Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe river basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis

In order to reveal the variation characteristics of annual and interannual runoff in Danhe River Basin, according to the monthly average flow data in Shanluping hydrological station from 1955 to 2000, the paper used Gene coefficient and concentration degree (period) to study the Dan River runoff distribution in a year; and applied Kendall test and R/S analysis methods to analyze the annual, flood and non-flood season runoff variation trends, and used Morlet wavelet to identify these runoff sequences' various cycles. The result showed that during the period of 1955 to 2000, The allocation of annual runoff in Danhe River basin was fairly well-distributed, and the curves mainly belonged to double peak type in each period.The maximum runoff occurred in August. The runoff sequences of annual, flood season and non-flood season presented significant decreasing trend, and the future decrease process had a certain anti-sustainability. The runoff sequences in flood season and annual had similar wet-dry alternating cycles, including change main cycles of 4, 10 and 15 years;The runoff sequence in non flood season have wet-dry alternately various cycles of 15 and 28 years.