随机微分方程在河道径流模拟中的应用

把随机微分运用到河道的行洪过程分析与计算中,通过考虑金沙江中游某河段行洪过程中的不确定性,建立随机微分方程模型,模拟河道出流过程,并用该河段某水文站的实测流量值对模型进行验证。结果表明:模拟值与实测值的统计参数有较好的拟合性,随机微分模型有较高的精度与准确性,模型在河道调洪验算中具有较高的适用性。本文为河道洪水验算提供了新的思路,为考虑河道洪水验算过程不确定性的洪水计算提供了科学依据。

Application of stochastic differential equation in simulation of river runoff

The idea of stochastic differential was applied to the process of river runoff in this paper.Considering the uncertain of the process of river runoff,the paper set up the model of stochastic differential equation and simulated outflow process of the river,and then certified the model by measured data of a hydrology station in this river. The result showed that statistical parameters of calculating value are better accordant with that of measured value and the accuracy and pricision of the model is high.The model has higher feasible in application of regulating flood calculation.This paper can provide a new idea for flood checking computation of river and scientific basis for uncertain flood computation considering the process of flood checking computation of river.