资水流域短期/长期综合干旱指数的构建与应用

干旱评估作为干旱灾害监测与防御的一个重要方面,如何准确评价并预测研究区域的旱情是当前研究的热点和难点。基于资水罗家庙以上流域的水文、气象资料,分别计算具有不同时间尺度的干旱指数值,利用主成分分析方法,分别研制基于水文模型的短期/长期综合干旱指数并探讨了其在资水流域的适用性。研究结果表明:短期综合干旱指数和长期干旱指数均能很好识别并评价资水流域的历史干旱。研究成果可为长江流域及其他流域建立和健全干旱监测与预警系统提供重要参考。

Development and application of composited drought index in short and long term at Zishui River basin

The drought evaluation is taken as an important step of drought disaster monitoring and defense.How to accurately assess and predict drought conditions is the hot and difficult point of current research in study area.Based on the hydrological and meteorological data in the upstream of Luojiamiao of Zishui river basin,the paper computed the drought indexs of different time scales, and then constructed the short term/long term composited drought index by using the principal component analysis method.The result revealed that the short and long term composited drought index can best recognize the history drought of Zishui river basin.The result may provide the important reference for the construction of drought disaster monitoring and defense system in Yangtze river and other basins.