Asset Pricing and Productivity Growth: The Role of Consumption Scenarios

The paper analyzes the performance of asset prices implied by an aggregate macroeconomic growth model under two different consumption hypotheses: overlapping generations of agents with two period lives versus the infinitely lived agent. The production side of the economy is described by a random growth model with a competitive labor market and an exogenously given random dividend payout ratio. For an isoelastic technology with multiplicative production shocks this implies a random dynamical system for the firm’s rate of profit with a unique asymptotically stable random fixed point for a large class of productivity growth and dividend payout ratio processes. Based on an extensive numerical study of stationary solutions we show that the two consumption scenarios imply a limited number of diverse effects regarding equity and bond returns and equity premia.