| 基于自然灾害系统理论的甘肃省农业旱灾风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱建海.基于自然灾害系统理论的甘肃省农业旱灾风险评估[J].中国水利,2014(14):8-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱建海 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省抗旱防汛指挥部办公室,兰州100038 |
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| 摘 要： | 甘肃省干旱灾害频发,对农业生产的影响很大。基于自然灾害系统理论,利用模糊评价方法,对甘肃省87个区县的农业干旱灾害的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性及风险进行了定量计算和定性评估,从而得到甘肃省农业旱灾风险分布。风险分布具有较明显的流域特征,即黄河流域内陆河流域长江流域。根据上述分析,针对降低甘肃省农业旱灾暴露性、脆弱性提出了一些建议,以期减轻农业旱灾风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 自然灾害系统理论 农业旱灾 风险评估 甘肃 |
Risk assessment of drought on agriculture in Gansu based on system theory |
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| Zhu Jianhai.Risk assessment of drought on agriculture in Gansu based on system theory[J].China Water Resources,2014(14):8-11. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Jianhai |
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| Affiliation: | Zhu Jianhai |
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| Abstract: | Frequent drought disasters have exerted great impact on agricultural production. Based on natural disaster system theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, quantitative and qualitative analysis are conducted to the risks associated with drought disasters in the aspects of its harmfulness to agriculture with exposure and fragility in 87 districts and counties in Gansu Province. The distribution of drought risk is summarized. It shows that the degree of risk tends to be higher in Yellow River Basin than inland fiver basins and then Yangtze Basin. According to the evaluation above, measures are put forward for reducing risks of agriculture-related drought disasters. |
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| Keywords: | national disaster system theory agriculture-related drought disasters risk assessment Gansu |
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