| 基于灰色马尔科夫链的道路交通死亡率预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 贺肖,陈伯辉,沈斐敏. 基于灰色马尔科夫链的道路交通死亡率预测[J]. 福建建筑高等专科学校学报, 2013, 0(6): 592-595 |
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| 作者姓名： | 贺肖 陈伯辉 沈斐敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 福州大学环境与资源学院,福建福州,350116 |
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| 摘 要： | 道路交通事故死亡率是反映道路交通安全的重要指标,为了对其进行准确预测,将灰色系统理论与马尔科夫链结合起来,构建了灰色马尔科夫预测模型,并将该模型与GM（1,1）模型进行比较分析.结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能更好地预测道路交通事故死亡率.
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| 关 键 词： | 道路交通 死亡率 GM（1,1）模型 灰色马尔科夫链 |
Prediction of road traffic mortality based on grey Markov chain |
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| He Xiao,Chen Bohui,Shen Feimin. Prediction of road traffic mortality based on grey Markov chain[J]. Journal of Fujian College of Architecture & C.E., 2013, 0(6): 592-595 |
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| Authors: | He Xiao Chen Bohui Shen Feimin |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Environment and Resources, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China) |
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| Abstract: | Road traffic mortality is an important indicator of road safety. To forecast the traffic mor- tality, gray theory and Markov chain theory were combined to construct a road traffic prediction mod- el. The model was compared with GM （ 1,1 ） model. The results show that the relative error of grey Markov chain prediction is lower than that of the GM （ 1,1 ） model. |
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| Keywords: | road traffic mortality GM （1,1） model grey Markov chain |
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