| 基于系统动力学的高拱坝混凝土施工进度风险演化模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈萌,黄建文,谭传世,熊鑫,周宜红,肖玲.基于系统动力学的高拱坝混凝土施工进度风险演化模型[J].水电能源科学,2021(2):59-63,68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈萌 黄建文 谭传世 熊鑫 周宜红 肖玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 三峡大学水利与环境学院;三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室;长江生态环保集团有限公司;中国三峡建设管理有限公司 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51879147);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金(2019KSD03)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了探明进度风险因素间的演化作用关系,以高拱坝混凝土施工为例,识别了进度风险因素,定性分析了风险因素间的因果演化关系,采用系统动力学构建了高拱坝施工进度风险演化模型,并针对具体工程对进度风险演化路径和不同演化路径下的施工进度进行了仿真模拟.结果表明,风险因素间的动态演化作用对高拱坝施工进度具有较大影响,不同的风险演化路...
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| 关 键 词： | 高拱坝 系统动力学(SD) 进度风险演化模型 演化路径 |
Schedule Risk Evolution Model of High A rch Dam Concrete Construction Based on System Dynamics |
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| CHEN Meng,HUANG Jian-wen,TAN Chuan-shi,XIONG Xin,ZHOU Yi-hong,XIAO Ling.Schedule Risk Evolution Model of High A rch Dam Concrete Construction Based on System Dynamics[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2021(2):59-63,68. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Meng HUANG Jian-wen TAN Chuan-shi XIONG Xin ZHOU Yi-hong XIAO Ling |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Yangtze Ecology and Environment Co..Ltd.,Wuhan 430062.China;China Three Gorges Projects Development Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100089,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to explore the evolutionary relationship between schedule risk factors,the high arch dam concrete construction was taken as the object.The schedule risk factors were identified,and the causal evolution relationship between the risk factors was qualitatively analyzed.System dynamics was used to construct the schedule risk model of high arch dam construction.The progress risk evolution path and the construction schedule under different evolution paths were simulated for specific projects.The results show that the dynamic evolution of risk factors has a greater impact on the construction schedule of high arch dam,and different risk evolution paths have different effects on the construction schedule.Model simulation can determine the critical evolution path of schedule risk and the impact significance,which provides decision-making basis for construction managers. |
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| Keywords: | high arch dam system dynamics schedule risk evolution model evolution path |
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