模糊评价与PSO优化的LSSVM架空输电线路故障率预测

准确计算架空线路故障率对于保障线路安全稳定运行有重要意义.分析确定架空输电线路故障的影响因素,将其划分为4个一级指标和21个二级指标,建立线路故障指标评价体系.分别采用三角分布法和模糊试验法确定定量指标和定性指标的隶属度函数,利用九分度AHP法计算各指标权重,通过模糊运算得到各影响因素的评价值.根据故障造成损失的严重程...

Failure Rate Prediction of Overhead Transmission Line Based on Fuzzy Evaluation and PSO-Optimized LSSVM

Accurate calculation of the fault rate of overhead transmission line is great significance for ensuring the safe and stable operation of the line.This paper analyzed the factors affecting the fault of overhead transmission line and divided them into 4 primary indexes and 21 secondary indexes.The evaluation index system of line fault was established.The membership function of quantitative index and qualitative index were determined by means of triangle distribution method and fuzzy test method,respectively.In addition,each index weight was calculated by nine-degree AHP method,and the evaluation value of each influencing factor was obtained by fuzzy operation.According to the severity of the losses caused by the faults,the faults were classified into three categories:defects,failures and accidents.Parameters of the LSSVM were optimized by particle swarm optimization.Taking the running time and 4 primary indexes as the support vectors,the prediction model of grade-I line fault rate was established.After verification,the average relative error of the model was 2.36%.Finally,an example was given to verify the effectiveness of the method of line fault rate mentioned in the paper.The calculation results can be used to provide reference for the preparation of operational measures by electric power department.