"十一五"期间我国城市化进程与住宅市场需求分析

目的研究城市化进程对我国住宅市场需求总量的影响，构建住宅市场需求总量模型．方法采用时间序列和相关分析两种方法对我国的城市化水平进行预测，在此基础上。根据附加需求和短缺需求确定住宅市场需求总量．结果得出了“十一五”期间我国城市化水平的预测结果，并测算得出相应的住宅市场需求总量．结论我国正处在城市化加速发展阶段，预计2010年，我国城镇人口比重将达到49．5％．根据附加需求和短缺需求构建的住宅市场需求总量模型，可以确定特定时间区段的住宅市场需求总量。进而为科学、合理地进行住宅投资提供参考．

The Analysis of the Demand Total Quantity of the Housing Market in Our Country Based on Urbanized Advancement

This paper aims to research the influence of the demand total quantity of our housing market on urbanization advancement and to construct the model of the demand total quantity of the housing market.Two methods,the time model and the correlation analysis,are applied to carry out the forecast for our country's urbanization level.Thus,the demand total quantity of the housing market is determined according to the additional demand and the short demand.Then,the forecast result of our urbanization level of the 11th 5-year period has been obtained.So has the corresponding demand total quantity of our housing market.The conclusion shows that our country is in the phase of accelerating urbanization development;the estimated urban population of our country will achieve 49.5% by the year 2010.According to the model of the demand total quantity of the housing market based on the additional demand and the short demand,the demand total quantity of the housing market of a specific time can be determined,so as to provide references to scientific and reasonable housing investment.