模糊综合评价方法在武器装备项目研制费用估算中的应用

影响武器开发研制费用的因素有很多,包括诸多不可量化的客观因素和主观人为因素以及工程研制中不可预见的因素,单纯靠技术指标难以充分反映武器装备研制费用的实际需求.因此,本文根据模糊综合评判方法,结合武器装备研制特点,建立一种研制费用估算的模糊综合估算模型.鉴于武器装备研制费用估算工作的复杂性,在对研制费用影响因素定性分析的基础上,模型将影响研制费用的因素分为三个层次,并由下往上逐层进行估算.实例表明,该模型为研制费用的估算提供了一种比较合理的方法.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD IN THE COST ESTIMATION OF WEAPON EQUIPMENT DEVELOPMENT

There exist a number of factors that affect the cost in weapon development,including many unquantifiable objective factors,subjective factors and unforeknowable factors. Depending on technical targets alone it is difficult to reflect fully the actual demand on the cost of weapon development. According to the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the characteristics of weapon development, a model of development cost estimation was built up. Due to the complexity in the estimation of costs, the factors affecting weapon developement costs are firstly analyzed qualitatively and then the factors are divided into three levels on which the process of estimation is based on. Examples show that the model can provide a reasonable method to estimate the cost of development.