Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California |
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| Affiliation: | 1. The Energy and Resources Group (ERG), 310 Barrows Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050, USA;2. End-Use Forecasting Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Stanford University, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 90-4000, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA;1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401, USA;2. Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, NREL, Colorado, 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401, USA;1. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands;2. Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute and K2, The Swedish Knowledge Centre for Public Transport, Sweden;3. Lund University, School of Economics and Management, Sweden;1. ZIRIUS, University of Stuttgart, Seidenstr. 36, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany;2. ITAS, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlstrasse 11, 76133 Karlsruhe, Germany;3. ITT-STB, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany;4. IEK-STE, Research Center Jülich (FZJ), Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, 52428 Jülich, Germany;1. Department of Power and Electrical Machines, Faculty of Engineering, Helwan University, Cairo 11790, Egypt;2. Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, Texas A&M University at Qatar, Doha 23874, Qatar;3. Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg Ø, Denmark;1. AU-Herning, Aarhus University, Birk Centerpark 15, DK-7400 Herning, Denmark;2. Vermont Law School, Institute for Energy & the Environment, PO Box 96, 164 Chelsea Street, South Royalton, VT 05068-0444, United States |
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| Abstract: | This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios. |
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