基于博弈论组合赋权法的澜沧江-湄公河水量分配

为了合理分配澜沧江-湄公河的水资源,以公平合理利用基本原则为基础,充分考虑公平性和现状性,并兼顾效率性与可持续性,选择了相应的指标建立层次结构,基于结合主观性和客观性因素的思想,分别采用层次分析法和熵权法计算水量分配权重,并采用基于博弈论的组合赋权法对上述权重进行组合,最终得到各国的水量分配权重。以实际用水量占比和水量分配权重对比,结果表明:越南用水量约为其所得分配量的2倍,而其他国家用水量均小于分配量,为了保障各国对水资源的公平合理利用权益,越南应向其他国家进行补偿。结论可为我国在澜沧江-湄公河的水资源开发利用和水利益谈判提供科学支撑。

Water allocation of Lancang-Mekong River based on game theory combination weighting method

To allocate the water resources in Lancang-Mekong River Basin, on the basis of the fundamental principles of equitable and reasonable utilization, this study took equity and the status quo into full consideration, paid attention to both efficiency and sustainability, and chose the corresponding indicators to establish hierarchy. Combining subjective and objective factors, analytic hierarchy process and entropy method were integratedly addressed to calculate weights of water allocation. The above weights were weighted further by the combined method based on game theory. Finally, the weights of water allocation were obtained. By comparing the proportion of actual water consumption and the weight of water allocation, the results showed that the water consumption in Vietnam was about twice as its allocated amount, whereas the water consumption in other countries was less than the allocated amount. In order to ensure the rights of equitable and reasonable utilization of water resources for riparian countries, Vietnam should compensate other countries. The conclusion could provide decision support for water resources utilization and water benefit negotiation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin for China.