基于集对分析联系数的合肥市水资源承载力评价

为科学指导合肥市水资源综合规划与管理,在综合分析水资源承载力与水资源-社会经济-生态环境系统相互关系的基础上,从支撑力、压力、调控力子系统选取13项指标,建立合肥市水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用集对分析联系数评价模型对合肥市2011-2016年水资源承载力进行综合评价。结果表明:合肥市2011-2015年水资源承载力评价等级为3级,2016年为2级,整体形势严峻,承载能力较差,但已有所改善,发展趋势良好;运用减法集对势理论,确定指标人均水资源量、产水模数、植被覆盖率、人口密度、水资源开发利用率、生态用水率是导致合肥市水资源承载力不足的主要因素。

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Hefei City based on set pair analysis connection number

In order to guide the comprehensive planning and management of water resources in Hefei City scientifically, thirteen indicators were selected from the support, pressure and control subsystems based on the comprehensive analysis of the relationship between water resources carrying capacity and water resources-social economy-the ecological environment system. The evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Hefei City was established, and the water resources carrying capacity of Hefei City from 2011 to 2016 was evaluated comprehensively using the connection number evaluation model. The results showed that the evaluation level of Hefei City were grade three from 2011 to 2015 and grade two in 2016. The overall situation was grim and the carrying capacity was poor, but it had improved and the development trend was good. Based on the theory of subtraction based set pair potential, the main factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources in Hefei City were determined as per capita water resources, water production modulus, vegetation coverage, population density, utilization rate of water resources development and ecological water consumption rate.