时空异质性视角下长江经济带水环境承载力评估及其驱动因子探究

基于水资源-水环境-社会经济耦合系统，构建了长江经济带水环境承载力综合评价指标体系，运用熵权-TOPSIS法测度其2010—2019年的水环境承载力，采用标准差椭圆、全局莫兰指数以及地理探测器等方法探究其时空格局演变和主要驱动因子。结果表明：长江经济带水环境承载力由大到小依次为下游、上游和中游，排名前三的省(市)依次是上海、浙江、重庆；水环境承载力省际不存在空间依赖性，其标准差椭圆呈现稳定的东西向空间分布格局和西南走向，重心分布于湖南岳阳与湖北荆州之间；水环境承载力的首要驱动因子是万元GDP用水量，社会经济子系统对水环境承载力影响程度最大，其次为水环境和水资源子系统，且不同区域的主要驱动因子存在显著空间异质性。

Evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity of Yangtze River Economic Belt and its driving factors exploration from perspective of spatial-temporal heterogeneity

Based on the coupling system of water resources, water environment, and socio-economy, a comprehensive evaluation index system of water environmental carrying capacity(WECC) of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB)was constructed. The entropy-TOPSIS method was used to measure WECC from 2010 to 2019, and the standard deviation ellipse, global Moran''s index, and Geodetector method were combined to explore the spatial-temporal evolution pattern and main driving factors of WECC. Results show that WECC presents a descending tremd in an order of downstream, upstream, and midstream of the YREB , with top three provinces (municipalities) of WECC in the YREB being Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Chongqing; there is no provincial spatial dependence of WECC in the YREB, and the standard deviation ellipse of WECC presents a stable east-west spatial distribution pattern and a trend of movement in the southwest direction, with its geographical center located between Yueyang City in Hunan Province and Jingzhou City in Hubei Province; the primary driving factor of WECC is water consumption per ten thousand CNY of GDP, the socio-economy subsystem has the greatest influence on WECC, followed by the water environment subsystem and water resources subsystem, and the main driving factors of different regions have significant spatial heterogeneity.