基于天文效应的流域性特丰水年预报方法及应用

针对造成水库特丰水年的天文条件问题,为了提高水库特丰水年预报结果的可信度,以国家电网公司调度区域内的15座大型水库特丰水年为研究对象,选用太阳黑子相对数、月球赤纬角2个天文因子,采用点聚图法,绘制水库年入库流量与太阳黑子关系分布图、水库年入库流量与月球赤纬角关系分布图、水库年入库流量天文效应区图,分析水库特丰水年在特定天文条件范围内的聚类关系,使15座水库特丰水年平均出现概率提高到正常出现概率的5.1倍。结果表明:水库的特丰水与太阳黑子、月球赤纬角密切相关,在特定的太阳黑子、月球赤纬角范围内高频率发生;基于流域同步性分析,从形成特丰水年的天文条件、天文周期、可公度结构等方面,预报2020年发生1964年型全国多流域水库特丰水、流域大洪水的概率大。

Method and application of extrarich water forecast in catchment based on Astronomical Effect

The present study aims to explore the problem of astronomical conditions which cause extrarich water year of reservoir， takes extrarich water year of 15 large reservoirs within the dispatch area in the State Grid Company as the research object.Two astronomical factors，sunspot relative number and lunar declination，are selected to analyze astronomical effect of extrarich water in catchment. It is found that the extrarich water of reservoir is closely related to the sunspot relative number and lunar declination，which occurs frequently in the specific range of sunspot relative number and lunar declination. Based on the synchronism analysis of catchment， it is predicted that the probability of the large flood in catchment and extrarich water in Multi-basin of China is high in 2020 like 1964 from the astronomical conditions，astronomical cycle，and commensurable structure aspect.