西大洋水库唐河支流丰枯演化特征研究

唐河支流入库径流状态的变化对于西大洋水库运行管理及保障雄安新区水量供给都具有十分重要的现实意义,为此本文以西大洋水库唐河支流上下游倒马关、中唐梅水文站实测径流资料为研究基础,运用Archimedean Copula函数及Markov相关理论对两站丰枯遭遇概率及丰枯转移状态进行系统研究。结果表明:丰枯遭遇概率分析中,下游中唐梅水文站承接上游来水效果较好,两站丰枯遭遇概率中具有很强的同步性,概率接近0.8;丰枯转移状态研究中,两站在丰水状态都具有最强的自保守性,倒马关径流序列更显平稳,相较更适合预测;在稳定状态下倒马关水文站极端情况的重现期呈现相反态势,即特枯状态平均重现期最长,约为14年,而中唐梅水文站特丰状态平均重现期最长,约为10年,极端情况下的上游有利趋势并没有在下游水文站更好地呈现。

Study on evolution trends of runoff in Tanghe Branch of Xidayang Reservoir

The change of the runoff in Tanghe River has important practical significance for the operation management of the Xidayang Reservoir and the guarantee of water supply in the Xiong'an New Area. Based on the measured runoff data series of Daomaguan hydrological station ( upstream) and Zhongtangmei hydrological station ( downstream) in Tanghe River，the Archimedean Copula function and Markov theory are used to systematically study the encounter risk and the transition state of two runoff data series. The results show that for the encounter risk of rich-poor runoff series，the encounter probability of rich-poor runoff series of two hydrological stations has synchronous，and its value is about 0. 8. For the transition state of rich-poor runoff series， the stronger self-conservativeness exist in rich runoff series for the two hydrological station，and the runoff series of Daomaguan hydrological station is more stable and more suitable for prediction. In the stable state，the average recurrence period of extreme situation presents the opposite trend. The average recurrence period for the richest runoff situation is the longest in Daomaguan hydrological station，about 14 years，while for Zhongtangmei hydrological station，the average recurrence period for the poorest runoff situation is the longest，about 10 years. So the favorable runoff trend of upstream hydrological station in extreme situations is not reflected by that of downstream hydrological station.