中国居民白酒消费的影响因素研究

为探究中国居民的白酒消费行为,本文基于CHNS 1993-2011年的数据,尝试使用对数-线性模型对中国居民白酒消费的影响因素及其作用效果进行分析,结果表明:居民收入水平与白酒消费量之间呈右偏倒U型关系,即随着居民收入水平的不断提高,白酒消费量会出现先增后减的趋势;当前中国居民人均收入水平尚未达到倒U型的转折点,在未来居民收入水平不断提高的情况下,人均白酒消费量会逐渐增加,白酒消费的增加导致的对粮食的需求也会相应增加。对此,政府要合理引导居民白酒消费,并将白酒消费因素纳入对粮食供求平衡的判断之中。

Research on the Influencing Factors about Liquor Consumption of Chinese Residents

In order to explore the behavior of liquor consumption of Chinese residents,this paper attempts to use the log-linear model to analyze the influencing factors and effects of liquor consumption based on the data of CHNS 1993-2011. The research finds:there is an inverted U-shaped relationship that is right-biased between income level and liquor consumption. As the income level of residents rises,the consumption of liquor will increase first and then decrease. Now,the per capita income level of Chinese residents has not reached the turning point of the inverted U-shaped relationship. Which means that the per capita consumption of liquor will continue to increase and then result the growth of food demand while the income level of residents rises in the future. So the price of liquor and food will also rise. In this regard,the government should reasonably guide the residents to consume and incorporate the liquor consumption into the food balance.