Simulating Particle Size Distributions over California and Impact on Lung Deposition Fraction

Reliable simulations of particle mass size distributions by regional photochemical air quality models are needed in regulatory applications because the U.S. EPA's National Ambient Air Quality Standards specify limits on the mass concentration of particles in a specific size range (i.e., aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm). Considering the associations between adverse health effects and exposure to ultrafine particles, air quality models may need to accurately simulate particle number size distributions in addition to mass size distributions in future applications. In this study, predictions of particle number and mass size distributions by the Community Multiscale Air Quality model with the standard and an updated emission size distribution are evaluated using wintertime observations in California. Differences in modeled lung deposition fraction for simulated and observed particle number size distributions are also evaluated. Simulated mass size distributions are generally broader and shifted to larger diameters than observations, and observed differences in inorganic and carbon (elemental and organic) distributions are not captured by the model. These model limitations can be reasonably accounted for in regulatory modeling applications. Simulated number size distributions are considerably less accurate than mass size distributions and are difficult to represent in air quality models due to large sub-grid-scale concentration gradients. However, modeled number size distributions are responsive to updates of the emission size distribution, and reasonable simulation of background number size distributions might be possible with an improved treatment of emission size distributions. Modeled lung deposition fractions for simulated number size distributions peak in the same lung region as those for number size distributions observed in the background. However, differences in modeled and observed total number concentrations generally suggest large differences in the total number of deposited particles. Future model development on simulating particle mass size distributions should focus on improving predictions of the mass fraction of particles <2.5 μm. Model development for particle number size distributions should focus on reducing differences in modeled lung deposition for modeled and observed distributions.