中国天然气调峰保供的策略与建议

目前中国天然气供需矛盾较突出,供暖季天然气调峰保供压力较大。为此,在分析中国天然气储运设施调峰保供主要影响因素的基础上,从资源、市场需求及国家能源改革政策等方面阐述了构建中国特色综合调峰保供体系的必要性。研究结果表明:(1)中国天然气储运设施受制于地下储气库建库地质条件复杂、气田放大压差式调峰影响气田开采寿命、LNG调峰成本和安全风险较高、进口管道气存在着中断风险等影响因素,天然气调峰设施建设进度落后于市场发展速度,难以满足天然气调峰需求量的快速增长;(2)多种类型储气设施并存、多渠道资源供气是未来中国天然气调峰保供的常态,需要建立天然气需求淡季重储存、旺季强优化的调峰保供体系,以满足北方供暖区天然气需求量季节性峰谷差巨大的市场。进而提出了中国天然气调峰保供的应对策略与建议:(1)加快推进全国天然气输配管线建设,实现互联互通;(2)因地制宜地发展适合中国国情的天然气调峰设施;(3)大力发展地下储气库,使其成为天然气调峰的首要方式;(4)充分发挥LNG的调峰优势,适度发展LNG调峰设施,提升海陆四大能源通道的综合利用水平;(5)加大天然气供给侧保障力度,确保国产天然气的供应主体地位;(6)积极利用经济杠杆,采取不同的定价机制,确保供气安全。

Countermeasures and suggestions on natural gas peak shaving and supply guarantee in China

At present, the contradiction between natural gas supply and demand is relatively sharp and the pressure of natural gas peak shaving and supply guarantee in heating seasons is larger in China. In this paper, the main factors influencing the peak shaving and supply guarantee of natural gas storage and transportation facilities in China were analyzed. Then, the necessity to construct a comprehensive peak shaving and supply guarantee system with Chinese characteristics was illustrated from the aspects of resource, market demand and national energy reform policy. Some results were obtained. First, natural gas storage and transportation facilities in China are affected by the complicated geological conditions of the sites to build underground gas storages, the effect of peak shaving by increasing pressure difference on the production life of gas field, high LNG peak shaving cost and safety risk, and possible interruption of imported pipeline gas. The construction of natural gas peak shaving facilities falls behind the development of natural gas markets, so the fast increase of gas demand for peak shaving cannot be satisfied. Second, it will be normal for natural gas peak shaving and supply guarantee in China that diverse gas storage facilities coexist and gas is supplied through multiple channels, so it is necessary to establish a peak shaving and supply guarantee system which pays attention to storage in slack seasons and optimization in peak seasons, so as to mitigate the huge seasonal peak–valley gap of natural gas demand for heating in North China. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions on natural gas peak shaving and supply guarantee in China were made in six aspects. First, the construction of natural gas transmission and distribution pipelines should be accelerated to realize interconnection. Second, natural gas peak shaving facilities suitable to China should be developed. Third, underground gas storages should be promoted preferentially for the purpose of natural gas peak shaving. Fourth, the advantages of LNG should be put into full play for peak shaving, LNG peak shaving facilities should be constructed moderately, and four major marine and land energy channels should be more effectively integrated. Fifth, the natural gas supply side should be efficiently secured and domestic gas should be always preferred. And sixth, the economic lever should be adopted effectively and different pricing mechanisms should be introduced to ensure the security of gas supply.