中国城市天然气消费驱动因素分析

为推动我国能源革命,培育天然气成为主体能源之一,有必要进一步研究我国天然气消费量的发展趋势,探寻影响天然气消费量的驱动因素。为此,采用迪氏对数指标分解法,构建城市天然气消费量分解模型,将驱动因素分解为空间扩张、管网密度、人口密度、人口城镇化、居民天然气气化率、能源消费弹性、天然气替代、经济增长和管道规模等9个效应,并定量分析各效应对我国城市天然气消费量变动的贡献率。研究结果表明:(1)各省天然气消费量驱动因素存在着较大的差异;(2)管道密度效应、管网规模效应、经济增长效应、居民天然气气化率效应、空间扩张效应、能源消费弹性效应能显著推动城市天然气消费量的增长,而人口密度和人口城镇化效应的影响则并不显著。进而根据分效应贡献率和市场特征,将中国30个省区市天然气市场划分为成熟型、培育型、经济发展型和资源约束型等4种类型,并分析了各类型市场天然气消费的核心驱动因素,以期为因地制宜开展天然气产业规划和政策制定提供决策依据。

Stimulating factors of urban gas consumption in China

To promote energy revolution and make natural gas turn into one of the primary energy sources, it is necessary to study the developing trend of natural gas consumption and explore its stimulating factors in China. In view of this, the Logarithmic Mean Disivia Index (LDMI) was applied to establish a decomposition function of urban gas consumption to calculate the multi-structure factors including Pipeline Length, Per Capital GDP, Population Urbanization Rate, Urban Spatial Expansion and Energy Substitute, Pipeline Network Density, Energy Consumption Elasticity of GDP, Population Density, and Gas Penetration Rate and Economic Growth, and the contributing rates of each which to urban gas consumption variation were quantitatively discussed in China. This study demonstrated that there exist great differences in those stimulating factors of urban gas consumption among cities and provinces in China, and to a significant increase of which the major contributors include all the above-mentioned 9 factors except for Population Density and Population Urbanization Rate. On this basis, according to each factor contribution rate and individual market feature, four types of natural gas markets across about 30 cities and provinces in China were thus classified: mature (developed) market, developing market, eco-development-oriented market, and resource-constrained market, the essential stimulating factors of which were also analyzed. Hopefully, this study will provide a reference for the industrial planning and policy-making in the natural gas sector adaptable to local conditions.