供应中断风险下供应链恢复能力投资决策及协调

摘要： 〖HTSS〗为了减缓供应商生产运营中断对制造商带来的供应中断风险，制造商需要在突发事件前优化供应链恢复能力投资水平。引入CVaR来刻画供应链在突发事件下的应急目标，建立了一定置信水平控制下的供应链恢复能力投资的决策模型，进而揭示了制造商风险规避程度对供应链最优恢复能力投资水平的影响。分权供应链下，制造商运用基于绩效的契约来激励供应商投资合适的恢复能力，以协调供应链。结论表明,CVaR可以恰当描述供应链恢复的能力投资行为，当风险规避程度越高，供应链最优恢复能力投资越多；当单位中断时间的惩罚系数的条件期望值等于单位中断时间的商誉成本的条件期望值时，供应链进入协调状态。

Supply Chain Recovery Capacity Investment Decision and Coordination under Supply Disruption

To mitigate the risk of supply disruption to the manufacturers resulting from the suppliers production interruption, the manufacturer needs to optimize the level of supply chain recovery capacity investment prior to a disruption. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is introduced to characterize the supply chains operation goal under disruption. A decision making model of supply chain recovery capacity investment under certain confidence control level is established. Furthermore, the degree of the manufactures risk aversion on the optimal level of supply chain recovery capacity investment is investigated. In a decentralized supply chain, the manufacturer uses the Performance Based Contract to encourage suppliers to invest right recovery capacity in order to coordinate a supply chain. The results show that the CVaR criteria can describe the behavior of supply chain recovery capacity investment, the higher the degree of the manufactures risk aversion, the more the optimal supply chain recovery capacity is. The supply chain is coordinated when the conditional expected value of penalty coefficient of unit outage time is equal to the conditional expected value of goodwill cost of unit outage time.