| 马尔可夫链在水库主汛期降雨状态预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 潘刚,芦冰,邹兵,陈崇德. 马尔可夫链在水库主汛期降雨状态预测中的应用[J]. 水利科技与经济, 2011, 17(6): 33-36 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 潘刚 芦冰 邹兵 陈崇德 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北,荆门,448156
2. 湖北水总水利水电建设股份有限公司,武汉,430034 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 依据漳河水库流域1963～2008年主汛期实测降雨量资料,应用均值标准差法建立5级分级标准。针对降雨量为相依随机变量的特点,以各阶自相关系数为权重,运用马尔可夫链模型预测未来一年的时段降雨量状态,结果表明,该方法直观、预测准确、计算简便,为区域降雨量的中短期预测提供了新的分析途径。
|
| 关 键 词： | 自相关系数 马尔可夫链 降雨量变化 预测 漳河水库流域 |
Markov Chain State in the Reservoir the Main Flood Season Rainfall Forecast |
| |
| PAN Gang,LU Bing,ZOU Bing,CHEN Chong-de. Markov Chain State in the Reservoir the Main Flood Season Rainfall Forecast[J]. Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy, 2011, 17(6): 33-36 |
| |
| Authors: | PAN Gang LU Bing ZOU Bing CHEN Chong-de |
| |
| Affiliation: | PAN Gang1,LU Bing2,ZOU Bing1,CHEN Chong-de1(1.Zhanghe Project Administration Bureau,Jingmen 448156,Hubei,China,2.Hubei Total Water Water Resources and Hydropower Construction Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430034 China) |
| |
| Abstract: | According to Zhanghe reservoir basin 1963 ~ 2008 measured rainfall material,mean standard deviation method to establish the application level 5 classification standard.According to rainfall of dependent random variables,with the characteristics of self-coefficients as weights,using markov chain models to predict the future year period of rainfall condition,results show that this method is intuitive,predict accurately,simpler calculation,the short-term forecast for regional rainfall provides a new analysis a... |
| |
| Keywords: | from the correlation coefficient markov chain rainfall change predict Zhanghe reservoir basin |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
