汉江上游水资源时空演变及成因分析

采用1930年-2008年长系列资料，对汉江上游水资源时空演变情况进行了系统分析。对丹江口水库天然入库径流的丰枯变化规律进行了分析，并从降雨及土地利用变化引起降雨径流关系变化的角度分析了丹江口天然入库径流变化的原因。通过对比丹江口水库天然与实测入库径流，分析了汉江上游耗水变化情况。根据人类活动及气候条件，将资料划分为1990年以前、1990年-1999年、2000年以后三个时段，对比分析了径流平均年内分配的变化，从降雨、人类活动影响等方面进行了成因分析。通过研究降雨空间分布变化，分析了汉江上游水资源的空间变化情况。

Temporal-Spatial Evolution of Water Resources in the Upstream of the Hanjiang River Basin and the Cause Analysis

Based on the long serial data from 1930 to 2008, this paper analyzed the temporal-spatial evolutionary law of water resources in the upstream of the Hanjiang River Basin, the high and low change law of the natural inflow of the Danjiangkou reservoir, and the causes of this change in view of precipitation and land-use changes. The change of water consumption of the upstream of the Hanjiang River Basin was also analyzed by comparison of the natural and observed inflow of the Danjiangkou reservoir. By the human activities and climate condition, the data were classified into three periods: before 1990, from 1990 to 1999 and after 2000 to compare and analyze the intra-armual distribution of the runoff and the causes. Finally, this paper comes out with the spatial change of water resources in the upstream of the Han River Basin through the research on the spatial distribution of the precipitation.