燃气管道三色泄漏定位及风险评估

预防和控制燃气泄漏事故的发生以及合理评价燃气事故的风险，是燃气输运安全领域研究的重点课题，其关键技术在于燃气泄漏位置的确定。为了更加科学合理地对燃气事故进行预防、控制和评价，提出了基于首末端监控的双向同步仿真与实地监测相结合的时差最小化的三色泄漏定位方法和基于GIS的城市燃气管网区域风险评价方法，并针对其实现关键技术进行了探讨和分析：以增加耗散项和初始点、延长出口点的方法，简化了动态仿真模型求解过程，增加了结果的稳定性；建立了变孔径泄漏及扩散综合计算模型，运用格林函数得出了其相应经验解析公式，弥补了非定常泄漏研究及其扩散技术模型无法对泄漏扩散浓度做出合理可靠分析的不足；对燃气浓度极限和冲击波致人伤亡的危险性给予了分析。

The regional risk assessment and gas release positioning by a three-color early warning system for fuel gas pipe-lines

How to prevent and control the leakage of piping gas and to make a reasonable risk assessment on the accidents are important issues in the field of safety study in gas transportation, and the key point is the location of gas release in the pipeline. Therefore, this paper presents a three color leakage positioning method with the minimum offset time, based on bidirectional pacing simulation at start and end monitoring points in combination with on site monitoring, and a regional risk evaluation method upon the GIS of a city gas grid. The gordian techniques were discussed in detail. The solution procedure of a dynamic simulation was simplified to increase the stability of results by adding the dissipative term and the initial point and prolonging the exit point. An integrated calculation model was built up for the variable aperture leakage and diffusion, a semi analytical and semi empirical method was obtained by the Green's function, thus making a reasonable and reliable analysis on the content of the released gas rather than the previous studies on irregular and uncertain accidents of gas release and the modeling of diffusion. The grave consequences of casualties resulting from the concentration limit and blasts were also analyzed in this paper.