电网可靠性评估的随机网流模型

从理论上提出了电网可靠性评估的随机网流模型.采用随机网流可对电网结构进行系统的剖析,甄别引起连锁事故的元件,量化各元件在电网中的重要程度,并计算出满足给定负荷的概率.从实用观点看,为区域网之间的联络线评估以及互联系统可靠性的评估提供了有力的工具.最后用算例说明了模型的算法和应用,并讨论了该模型的缺点和今后研究的问题.

Probabilistic Network flow Models for Reliability Evaluation of Power Networks

The paper proposes a probabilistic network-flow model in evaluating reliability of electric power transmission systems. The model enables us to thoroughly dissect the structure of power networks, distinguish the elements whose failure can cause cascade outages, and obtain probability to satisfy demands. The examples illustrate the usefulness in analyzing reliability of interconnected power systems. It can be used in both planning and operation security assessments. The shortcomings of the proposed model and future studies along this direction are also discussed.