南水北调中线交叉建筑物洪水风险估算模型研究

南水北调中线工程运行阶段的风险是工程管理者关注的焦点之一。以往的研究只单纯考虑水文不确定性或工程结构不确定性,研究结果也只提供交叉建筑物在其设计基准期内的风险概率,不能给出不同洪水条件下的工程风险,对运行阶段的风险管理意义不大。通过综合考虑水文不确定性和工程结构不确定性,提出适用于交叉建筑物在各种洪水条件下的失效风险计算模型,该模型可以给出交叉建筑物在各种洪水条件下的失效风险。以河南省境内湍河梁式渡槽为例,建立渡槽失效故障树以及各种失效模式的极限状态,给出了一套可适用于渡槽水毁失效风险估算的方法。

Research on flood risk estimation model of cross structures in Middle Route Project of South-North Water Diversion

The risk in operation period of the middle route project of South-North Water Diversion is a concerned issue for the project administrators.The previous studies only involve uncertainty of hydrological conditions or engineering structures,therefore,the results can give the risk probability of cross structures in design reference period;however,the risk probability under different flood condition can not be given,which has no remarkable significance for risk management in operation period.Through comprehensi...