Potential geographic distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition from intensive livestock production in North Carolina, USA

To examine the consequences of increased spatial aggregation of livestock production facilities, we estimated the annual production of nitrogen in livestock waste in North Carolina, USA, and analyzed the potential distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition from confined animal feeding operations ("CAFO") lagoons. North Carolina is a national center for industrial livestock production. Livestock is increasingly being raised in CAFOs, where waste is frequently held, essentially untreated, in open-air lagoons. Reduced nitrogen in lagoons is volatilized as ammonia (NH(3)), transported atmospherically, and deposited to other ecosystems. The Albemarle-Pamlico Sound, NC, is representative of nitrogen-sensitive coastal waters, and is a major component of the second largest estuarine complex in the U.S. We used GIS to model the area of water in the Sound within deposition range of CAFOs. We also evaluated the number of lagoons within deposition range of each 1 km(2) grid cell of the state. We considered multiple scenarios of atmospheric transport by varying distance and directionality. Modeled nitrogen deposition rates were particularly elevated for the Coastal Plain. This pattern matches empirical data, suggesting that observed regional patterns of reduced nitrogen deposition can be largely explained by two factors: limited atmospheric transport distance, and spatial aggregation of CAFOs. Under our medium-distance scenario, a small portion (roughly 22%) of livestock production facilities contributes disproportionately to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound. Furthermore, we estimated that between 14-37% of the state receives 50% of the state's atmospheric nitrogen deposition from CAFO lagoons. The estimated total emission from livestock is 134,000 t NH(3) yr(-1), 73% of which originates from the Coastal Plain. Stronger waste management and emission standards for CAFOs, particularly those on the Coastal Plain nearest to sensitive water bodies, may help mitigate negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems.