| 开滦煤矿安全事故的灰色关联分析与趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨中,丁玉兰,赵朝义. 开滦煤矿安全事故的灰色关联分析与趋势预测[J]. 煤炭学报, 2003, 28(1): 59-63 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨中 丁玉兰 赵朝义 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 开滦集团有限公司,河北,唐山,063018
2. 同济大学,人机与环境工程研究所,上海,200092 |
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| 摘 要： | 以开滦煤矿的人－机－环境系统为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论,结合煤矿产生实际,对煤矿事故与其相关因素进行了灰色关产分析;并运用灰色预测方法,依据煤矿事故统计数据,对煤矿事故发展趋势以及荆各庄矿2001和2002年的千人负伤率进行了预测,分别得出8．1043和7．7033的结果,由分析预测的过程和结构表明,该方法简单易行,其结果可信,既可为煤矿安全事故的这量研究提供理论参考,又可为煤矿企业安全管理决策提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 开滦煤矿 安全事故 灰色理论 关联分析 趋势预测 人－机－环境系统 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-9993(2003)01-0059-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-09-19 |
The grey interrelation analysis and tend prediction on the safety accident in Kailuan Coal Mine |
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| YANG Zhong ,DING Yu-lan ,ZHAO Chao-yi. The grey interrelation analysis and tend prediction on the safety accident in Kailuan Coal Mine[J]. Journal of China Coal Society, 2003, 28(1): 59-63 |
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| Authors: | YANG Zhong DING Yu-lan ZHAO Chao-yi |
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| Affiliation: | YANG Zhong 1,DING Yu-lan 2,ZHAO Chao-yi 2 |
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| Abstract: | The article takes the man-machine & environment system in Kailuan Coal Mines as the object of study to make the grey interrelation analysis for coal mine accidents and related factors by integrating the Grey System Theory with actual coal mine production. It also forecasts the accident development trend in coal mine in accordance with the accident statistics of coal mine by means of the grey forecast method. The wounded rate in 1 000 persons in Jinggezhuang Coal Mine in 2001 and 2002 was forecasted in the essay and the results of 8.104 3 and 7.703 3 were obtained, separately. The course and the result in the analysis and the forecast indicate that the method is simple and easy, and the result is reliable. The method and result of the study in the article can not only provide the theoretical reference for the quantitative study in coal mine safety accident but also supply the basis to the safety administration decision of coal enterprise. |
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| Keywords: | safety accident grey theory interrelation analysis tend prediction |
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