1960年-2010年淮河流域降水量时空变化特征

采用淮河流域25个代表性站点降水量资料,运用线性回归法、累计距平法以及Mann-Kendall趋势检验与突变检验的方法综合分析了该流域降水量在时间上与空间上的变化特征。结果表明:在时间尺度上,淮河流域多年降水量总体上呈现微弱的上升趋势,但中间多年都保持下降的趋势,突变起始年为1965年;在空间尺度上,淮河流域降水量由南向北逐渐减少,上游、中游多呈现上升趋势,下游多呈现下降趋势。对淮河流域时空上的降水量的趋势特征和突变特征分析,可以为淮河流域的洪涝灾害防治提供参考依据。

Characteristics of the precipitation variation in Huaihe River Basin during 1960-2010

With linear regression method, the accumulative anomaly curve method, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test, spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation variation are analyzed by using precipitation data of 25representative stations in Huaihe River Basin during 1960-2010. The results indicate that a slight increase in annual precipitations of Huaihe River Basin generally, but a decrease trend was maintained all the time during intermediate years and mutation starting year is 1965; On a spatial scale, the precipitation decreased gradually from south to north in Huaihe River basin. Upstream and midstream mostly show an ascendant trend, and downstream almost presents an increasing trend. The precipitation trend and mutation characteristics on space and time are analyzed, which provide the reference for the flood disaster prevention in Huaihe River basin.